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More About Managing Risk
We have all heard the old fable of the race between
the "Turtle and the Hare." The Hare jumps out to a wide lead in the race and has
so much confidence in his lead that he lays down for a nap. The Turtle is
tenacious and tireless. He continues to move forward, however slowly, sticking
to his plan without waiver. Eventually he passes the Hare who is asleep. When
the Hare wakes up, startled, he gives it all he's got to catch the turtle but in
the end he is unsuccessful and the Turtle wins the race.
Money management is the same. Sticking to one's
plan, managing risk when necessary, and in general thinking of preservation
first and foremost, often results in what investors consider underperformance.
The reason is they pit the broker or money manager to the S&P 500 and if they
fall short, the money often seeks a higher promised return elsewhere.
Let's look at two managers each with $100,000.
Manager #1 is a manager of risk. Manager #2 is straight out buy and hold because
no one can time market risk. Here is a good example of what can happen verses
the two philosophy's.
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|
Manager 1 |
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Manager 2
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|
Starting Value |
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$ 100,000 |
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$ 100,000 |
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Year 1 |
12% |
$ 112,000 |
12% |
$ 112,000 |
|
Year 2 |
18% |
$ 132,160 |
35% |
$ 151,200 |
|
Year 3 |
20% |
$ 158,592 |
40% |
$ 211,680 |
|
Year 4 |
12% |
$ 177,623 |
25% |
$ 264,600 |
|
Year 5 |
2% |
$ 181,176 |
33% |
$ 177,280 |
As you can see, the killer for the buy and hold
account was year 5. That year is tantamount to last year. I know the S&P 500 was
up 28% or so in the year but if this manager was a small cap manager he could
have been down 33%.
Let's say Mr. Jones is about to retire in year five
and he has a $2,000,000 portfolio. In year five he loses 33% or $660,000. Do you
think Mr. Jones will be pleased with his broker or manager? Probably not. Even
though he knocked the cover off the ball when the market was good, when the
market was bad he did equally as bad. If the market had been bad, let's say, for
the first four years where would manager #2 be by year 5? Which is better, a 20%
return in a year verses 16% return with 1-2 the risk? It's the risk part that
Mr. Jones never thinks about especially in today's environment. What do a
15-year-old skateboarder and today's average investor have in common? No Fear!
Here is another way to look at the same concept.
| |
Risk Management |
No Risk Management |
|
Beginning Value |
After
Correction |
Beginning Value |
After
Correction |
| Position 1 |
20,000 |
25,000 |
20,000 |
25,000 |
| Position 2 |
20,000 |
25,000 |
20,000 |
25,000 |
| Position 3 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
| Position 4 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
20,000 |
| Position 5 |
20,000 |
17,000 |
20,000 |
12,000 |
| Position 6 |
20,000 |
17,000 |
20,000 |
12,000 |
| Position 7 |
20,000 |
17,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
| Position 8 |
20,000 |
17,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
| Position 9 |
20,000 |
17,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
| Position 10 |
20,000 |
17,000 |
20,000 |
10,000 |
| Portfolio Value |
200,000 |
192,000 |
200,000 |
154,000 |
| What does it take
to get back to even? |
|
4.2% |
|
29.9% |
Next 3 Years the Market Rallies 15%
Where Does Each Account Stand?
|
Year 1 at +15% |
220,800 |
177,100 |
|
Year 2 at +15% |
253,920 |
203,665 |
|
Year 3 at +15% |
292,008 |
234,215 |
Each account starts with $200,000 in ten positions.
One account using risk management strategies to limit losses while the other
account does not.
Each account shows two of the ten positions as
winners, two that are even and the other six as losses. The account using risk
management limits losses in those six positions to 15%. The other account has
two positions down 40% and four down 50%. The account using risk management
falls to $192,000 in value while the other account falls to $154,000.
That means for the account without risk management
to get back to even, it must rally almost 30% while the risk management account
only needs to rally 4.2%.
Let's assume that after a terrible year the market
has three good years, up 15% each year and both accounts participate on the
upside. (In reality what probably happens is the customer just gives up on
equities after the account is down just when bonds turn down and equities turn
up). At the end of year 3, the risk management account is up to $292,008 while
account not utilizing risk management is only at $234,215. Learning how to play
defense effectively makes your job on the offensive side much easier.
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Learn from "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire"
You remember the premise of the "Who Wants to Be a
Millionaire" show? Contestants come on and answer trivia questions with the
value of each question growing until they reach the final, million-dollar
question. If the contestant answers a question incorrectly they are eliminated.
To make things more interesting, the show gives each contestant three
"lifelines". The lifelines are to help the contestants out if a particular
question has them stumped.
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One lifeline takes away two of the four answers
leaving the contestant with a 50-50 chance of guessing the correct answer.
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Another lifeline allows a contestant to phone a
friend and see if they know the answer.
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The third lifeline is a poll of the audience. This
allows the audience to guess the right answer and then the computer displays
what percentage of the audience voted for each answer.
A study found that when a contestant phones a friend
for an answer, the friend is right about 2/3 of the time. However, when the
audience is polled, the audience is correct 90% of the time.
Your super smart friend is right less then polling
the audience of people who have nothing better to do than sit in a studio
audience at 3:00 in the afternoon!
The apparent conclusion is that you are more likely
to see the right answer from a question--you're better off asking a big, diverse
group, rather than one or two experts.
The miracle of markets is that a hundred million
ordinary people, just by going about their daily business, end up allocating
resources much more efficiently than would five guys talking on TV, no matter
how smart those five guys are.
I view the bullish percent concept as "polling the
audience" in the Millionaire show while the most often quoted market indices
take the "phone a friend" tactic.
The audience members get it right more often than
the phone a friend and that is what I see with the bullish percents--they are
better at assessing risk in the market than the indices.
Each day when the bullish percents are calculated we are in essence "polling the
audience"...this audience happens to be the NYSE or OTC stocks...this audience
of about 3000 for each market is better at assessing risk than the top twenty
capitalized stocks in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones 30 Industrials or the NASDAQ
100.
Remember, the bigger the sample size the more
accurate a picture you get...each day we ask the stocks comprising the NYSE or
OTC what is the correct level of the bullish percent.
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