More About Managing Risk
 

We have all heard the old fable of the race between the "Turtle and the Hare." The Hare jumps out to a wide lead in the race and has so much confidence in his lead that he lays down for a nap. The Turtle is tenacious and tireless. He continues to move forward, however slowly, sticking to his plan without waiver. Eventually he passes the Hare who is asleep. When the Hare wakes up, startled, he gives it all he's got to catch the turtle but in the end he is unsuccessful and the Turtle wins the race.

 

Money management is the same. Sticking to one's plan, managing risk when necessary, and in general thinking of preservation first and foremost, often results in what investors consider underperformance. The reason is they pit the broker or money manager to the S&P 500 and if they fall short, the money often seeks a higher promised return elsewhere.

Let's look at two managers each with $100,000. Manager #1 is a manager of risk. Manager #2 is straight out buy and hold because no one can time market risk. Here is a good example of what can happen verses the two philosophy's.
 

    Manager 1   Manager 2
Starting Value   $ 100,000   $ 100,000
Year 1 12% $ 112,000 12% $ 112,000
Year 2 18% $ 132,160 35% $ 151,200
Year 3 20% $ 158,592 40% $ 211,680
Year 4 12% $ 177,623 25% $ 264,600
Year 5 2% $ 181,176 33% $ 177,280

                               

As you can see, the killer for the buy and hold account was year 5. That year is tantamount to last year. I know the S&P 500 was up 28% or so in the year but if this manager was a small cap manager he could have been down 33%.

 

Let's say Mr. Jones is about to retire in year five and he has a $2,000,000 portfolio. In year five he loses 33% or $660,000. Do you think Mr. Jones will be pleased with his broker or manager? Probably not. Even though he knocked the cover off the ball when the market was good, when the market was bad he did equally as bad. If the market had been bad, let's say, for the first four years where would manager #2 be by year 5? Which is better, a 20% return in a year verses 16% return with 1-2 the risk? It's the risk part that Mr. Jones never thinks about especially in today's environment. What do a 15-year-old skateboarder and today's average investor have in common? No Fear!  

 

Here is another way to look at the same concept.
 

  Risk Management No Risk Management
Beginning Value After
Correction
Beginning Value After
Correction
Position 1 20,000 25,000 20,000 25,000
Position 2 20,000 25,000 20,000 25,000
Position 3 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
Position 4 20,000 20,000 20,000 20,000
Position 5 20,000 17,000 20,000 12,000
Position 6 20,000 17,000 20,000 12,000
Position 7 20,000 17,000 20,000 10,000
Position 8 20,000 17,000 20,000 10,000
Position 9 20,000 17,000 20,000 10,000
Position 10 20,000 17,000 20,000 10,000
Portfolio Value 200,000 192,000 200,000  154,000
What does it take to get back to even? 4.2% 29.9%


Next 3 Years the Market Rallies 15%   Where Does Each Account Stand?
 

Year 1 at +15% 220,800  177,100
Year 2 at +15% 253,920 203,665
Year 3 at +15% 292,008 234,215

                   

Each account starts with $200,000 in ten positions.  One account using risk management strategies to limit losses while the other account does not.

 

Each account shows two of the ten positions as winners, two that are even and the other six as losses.  The account using risk management limits losses in those six positions to 15%.  The other account has two positions down 40% and four down 50%.  The account using risk management falls to $192,000 in value while the other account falls to $154,000. 

That means for the account without risk management to get back to even, it must rally almost 30% while the risk management account only needs to rally 4.2%. 

 

Let's assume that after a terrible year the market has three good years, up 15% each year and both accounts participate on the upside.  (In reality what probably happens is the customer just gives up on equities after the account is down just when bonds turn down and equities turn up).  At the end of year 3, the risk management account is up to $292,008 while account not utilizing risk management is only at $234,215.  Learning how to play defense effectively makes your job on the offensive side much easier.


Learn from "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire"

You remember the premise of the "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" show? Contestants come on and answer trivia questions with the value of each question growing until they reach the final, million-dollar question. If the contestant answers a question incorrectly they are eliminated.

To make things more interesting, the show gives each contestant three "lifelines". The lifelines are to help the contestants out if a particular question has them stumped.

  • One lifeline takes away two of the four answers leaving the contestant with a 50-50 chance of guessing the correct answer.

  • Another lifeline allows a contestant to phone a friend and see if they know the answer.

  • The third lifeline is a poll of the audience. This allows the audience to guess the right answer and then the computer displays what percentage of the audience voted for each answer.

A study found that when a contestant phones a friend for an answer, the friend is right about 2/3 of the time. However, when the audience is polled, the audience is correct 90% of the time.

Your super smart friend is right less then polling the audience of people who have nothing better to do than sit in a studio audience at 3:00 in the afternoon!

The apparent conclusion is that you are more likely to see the right answer from a question--you're better off asking a big, diverse group, rather than one or two experts. 

The miracle of markets is that a hundred million ordinary people, just by going about their daily business, end up allocating resources much more efficiently than would five guys talking on TV, no matter how smart those five guys are.

I view the bullish percent concept as "polling the audience" in the Millionaire show while the  most often quoted market indices take the "phone a friend" tactic.

The audience members get it right more often than the phone a friend and that is what I see with the bullish percents--they are better at assessing risk in the market than the indices.

Each day when the bullish percents are calculated we are in essence "polling the audience"...this audience happens to be the NYSE or OTC stocks...this audience of about 3000 for each market is better at assessing risk than the top twenty capitalized stocks in the S&P 500, the Dow Jones 30 Industrials or the NASDAQ 100. 

Remember, the bigger the sample size the more accurate a picture you get...each day we ask the stocks comprising the NYSE or OTC what is the correct level of the bullish percent.